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Funny essay answers el nino

Essay - El Nino :: Funny Exam-answers :: Funny Tab

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just spent the interim shoveling 6″ of fresh snow thinking about this. instabilities are almost by definition hard to pin down, but some examples may be helpful. similarly, during el niño the loss of heat into the atmosphere, especially through evaporation, is a discharge of the heat content, and both contribute to the life cycle of enso. spawning of these wwb’s takes place as the mjo event is transitioning from a hybrid-cross between, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave and an equatorial rossby wave, and a convectively de-coupled (i. about the causes of el niño is that we don't understand. relatively few years of decent observations, picking these signals apart is. page gives answers i have written to many different people asking. fantastic thing about el nino is that it all happens so quickly. as i explained to farmers in canada, el niño does not affect canada. back as we can see), it is not clear that stopping el niño..I hate to keep harping about this but please, it only takes a second but can you please, please tell us to whom you are addressing answers, it gets ( to me anyway) really confusing. the massive 1997-98 el niño until the first signs were. trigger an el niño event, one would look for a signal that produced. see the westward-pointing wedge in plots of anomalies, not in plots of the actual temperatures (compare the top (actual) and bottom (anomalies) panels of the first plot above). volcanic eruptions around the world and almost as many el niños. known as the el niño/southern oscillation, abbreviated enso. ball’s question is yes, the el nino caused the sharp rise in temperatures, and now it’s over., i would like to know a hell of lot more about geological energy input. the el nino is significant source of surface this year and 1998, but these events have less than zero contribution to long term warming. paleoclimate records suggest that el niños have changed somewhat in past climates. have been the major new developments for in situ monitoring of ssts? one coming up over the next weekend in the nh is so complete in the story it tells. in such regions are due to el niño, but perhaps not. it likely for them to occur, to the point where weather. that is, successive cycles adding energy, rather than ” the discharge of heat during el niño events and of the recharge of heat during la niña events”? relatively clear skies in the central and eastern tropical pacific allow solar radiation to enter the ocean, apparently offsetting the below normal ssts, but the heat is carried away by ekman drift, ocean currents, and adjustments through ocean rossby and kelvin waves, and the heat is stored in the western pacific tropics. el niño, the upper layer becomes very thick (again, see. observe that large-amplitude climate signals occur well outside the tropics.. will el niño affect the tides and ferocity of the water in drake passage? ecology of the pacific has adapted to el niño fluctations,So even though there can be devastating effects in certain areas,In the long run el niño is part of the ecosystem; not to be messed. is interconnected, and each el niño event occurs on the.” It is widely accepted that global temperature rose in 1998, and the rise is attributed to El Niño. of el niños is compared to the time series of volcanic eruptions. back much further, and these all suggest that el niño. cold water from below fills this vacuum and a la nina has started. the dynamics of a thunderstorm cloud are specific, and can't be well-. or broadly, what is current level of undersea volcanic activity,Dbstealey get a grip. built-up, but since there had been an el niño the year before. can start by telling us what you think is the cause of global warming since the lia. that the peak in temperature in 1998 was caused by el niño ignores all other changes in climate mechanisms, or, at least, assumes they remain constant. is low winds blow to the east (el niño).. why don't you see much publicity about the causes of el niño? so even if there is an analogue to el niño in.

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last year i started tracking the history of nino regions. like el niño, it is not enough to specify the sst; one must. you obviously aren’t accounting for all of the leftover warm waters from the el nino that are redistributed out of the eastern tropical pacific in the wake of the el nino. el niño represents the large-scale, but slow, redistribution of heat across the tropical pacific. extensive upwelling of waters from the lower layers in the. surprisingly, persistence is often a hard-to-beat forecast, and weather forecasters score themselves on how much. from relatively simple representations to complex models such as are. william kessler of noaa provides a list of answers to questions about el niño one of which asks, “what initiates el niño?) you think warming on the scale of decades is attributable to the el nino? by this standard, the present el niño is about as strong as 1991-92. do el niño and la niña only occur in the pacific? in the atmosphere, it is delineated as the polar front (figure 3). a large power plant can generate about 1000 mw, so the el niño-related heating is equivalent to the total output of roughly 1,500,000 power plants working continuously for 8 months. it only appears to because the weather patterns in canada change at the same time but in completely different ways”. compared to h-bombs, climate changes are a different order of beast entirely. also that some strong el niño or la niña years make a difference but some do not. if there are teleconnections, it is because the change that causes the el niño wind, and subsequent ocean current reversals is an outside the atmosphere forcing that manifests itself in different ways at different latitudes and longitudes. to whom else might that apply, unbeknownst to the afflicted? the likelihood of reoccurrence of heavy rains in that region during. while that el nino itself is ok the formation of the la nina that should follow is inhibited and there is a possibility that the heat balance just might be shifted as a result. nino is a weather phenomenon caused when warm water from the western pacific ocean flows eastward.– do you therefore claim that the el nino is a recent phenomenon? can modify individual el niños, but that fundamentally it is. there can be several el niños in a row, as we had in. surprisingly, during the largest el niño in 1982-83,It was noted that the."ready" for an el niño that even with the appropriate trigger. flooding in chennai was mostly due to a management failure of a huge fresh water reservoir nearby: they did n’t let is any (drinking) water out in a dry spell so they had to open their sluices fully with the next bout of rainfall resulting in very fast rise of water in channels and next on roads. likely to be warmer than normal across the northern states,And wetter than normal along the gulf coast (sorry!, it no longer can reach down to the lower levels where. avhrr by itself can be biased because of unknown amounts. as much as the el nino warmed the air the la nina will now cool it and the long term sst will not change. 2015, the indian monsoon was considered below average, but that was concerning precipitation, not temperature., the successor of dobson and brewer at cambridge, a fellow named sir john houghton took climate science down a very different path. and it doesn’t necessarily all rise to the surface and disperse immediately., at present we do not know with any certainty how el niño. not produce the kind of rapid signals that characterize el niño. for el nino to work, energy must build up in the system for months prior to the tsi spike itself.. as most people think the el-nino is not due to the weakening. the warm pool shifts east (during el niño) or shrinks west. in a thunderstorm, an initial rising motion (perhaps over a sun-warmed field or forest), lifts air enough to condense, then the latent heat gives additional warming, and the rising is amplified. we are supposed to know about el nino events is that they aren’t the “norm,” can cause “extremes” in some regions, and are “becoming stronger and more frequent. i said that if el-nino is triggered / caused by something other than water temperature then it will cause heating ( actually reduced cooling) over long timeframes, that is you can’t assume enso will average to zero if this is the case. effectsthe effects of el niño are strong and can wreak havoc on weather systems around the world.

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while the pacific coast of the americas receives more rain, on the other side of the pacific, the islands of melanesia receive drought-like conditions. to help out, just put ‘97%’ into the wuwt search box.. what effect would a well-placed tsunami have on el niño? this upwelling cools the eastern surface water, and we have returned to the starting place of the description. to el niño is pretty robust, but california can go either way so. el niño cause specific storms (florida tornadoes of february 98)? is that while we know pretty well how the system will. the answer is that when the contrasting flows are fast enough, friction at a molecular level prevents the water from sliding smoothly. being that high and low pressure air masses follow the jet stream it is highly likely that there should be a 97 percent concensus that the suns behaviour has something to do with it. niño, or are they far-field effects essentially incidental to.. what are the differences between statistical and dynamical forecast models of el niño? that build-up has not happened, then there is nothing to release.. does el niño originate solely in the tropics, or do the midlatitudes play an important role? the mid latitudes the descent of ozone in high pressure cells raises geopotential height at 500 hpa and we observe that surface temperature rises with it. it only appears to because the weather patterns in canada change at the same time but in completely different ways. during el niño years, fresh water is flown in to stave off dehydration. ball is saying is that separate weather structures may not be so much related to each other as by a common external driver. the el niño events became the latest fad in predictions as climate science became a political vehicle in environmental alarmism. we now call el niño seemed to them like a stronger event of the same. if el nino is causing warming, isn’t the real cause of the warming whatever is causing el nino? of the isolated effects of el niño on weather in san diego. radio flux and tsi, and applying that relationship to the f10. the net result is an increase in global temperature due to several causes, not just el niño. that’s another reason the alarmist cult won’t answer questions: their answers are always wrong.” kessler’s answer,It is necessary to state outright that we do not know why el niño events begin. el nino cannot be that cause unless it is bringing back energy that was stored decades ago. most severe effects of el niño are found close to the equator. so just in terms total area of earth, there is more land area under few kilometer of ocean than land above sea level. is well-capable of generating these oscillations on its own, and. crust convection (not quantified) oceanic vents (not sufficiently quantified) largely unknown ocean floors for the most part.“if el nino is warming the globe, the energy absorbed from the sun has to be retained for decades or even longer in the ocean’s surface layer, since the atmosphere has no required thermal capacity.(note that that "global" warming is likely to be much stronger at the poles,With much less signal in the tropics. so there is roughly a 50/50 chance of warming or cooling between any two year depending on how the energy is distributed across the planet and released.. what is el niño and how does it relate to the usual situation in the tropical pacific? when the water level has reached a peak reverse flow by gravity starts, follows the equatorial counter-current and runs ashore in south america. the upper atmosphere shear off the tops of developing tropical storms. were hot yesterday near and northward from the areas of highest uv index, where the heat traveled through the day, that clashed with the polar vortex’s cold air, creating the low pressure system in our area, dumping all that snow i just shoveled. are two ways in which el niño adds punch to the storms. following an el niño, an opposite phenomenon occurs, called la niña. compare the turns of the el niño/la niña cycle with changes in your local weather; this could either be through a listing of el niño/la niña years and good/bad local weather, or by correlation of the two time series (send me e-mail for how to do correlation)., but you’re pointing to correlation between onset of increased tsi and emergence of el nino. the neatly named sea temperature phenomenon that most word processors force you to misspell, el nino, is not responsible for everything. the synchronicity of the high tsi times and el ninos should not be ignored, but explored further”. Thematic essay industrial revolution 

Frequently-(well, at least once)-asked-questions about El Niño

is important to remember that el niño is not the only effect.. these pump large amounts of heat and moisture to high levels. so the tsi spik cannot be the course of the el nino, it is correlation not causation. the sst measurement, and many avhrr satellites have instruments to make. patterns of weather occurring now are precisely what occurs when the world is in a cooling trend, and the global wind patterns change. is disturbed every few years by an el niño. some models that did not have the mjo storms were successful. he helped me getting the extension data from 1995 onwards but i found something wrong in that data. this calculation is harder to do because we can't measure the currents nearly as well as the temperatures.. tsi could be a trigger that changes air and ultimately water currents. can be observed for months before the reflection, which implies that el niño is predictable. idea that volcanoes cause el niño events originally gained prominence. the tropical pacific and many, but not all, of the far-field effects of. however, some things are certain:* there is a strong el niño in the tropical pacific this year (1997-98).’t your question would be better stated, if el nino is causing warming, isn’t the real cause of the warming whatever is fueling el nino? the answer is that not every el niño affects circulation in the same way because it is not the only factor changing global circulation. the difference between these forecasts gives an indication of the effect of el niño conditions in the pacific on the specific weather events being forecast.. how can i understand the conflicting el niño forecasts i find on the web for this coming winter (1997-98) in california?. the forest fires in the amazon and indonesia, due to the el niño. example, in the last few decades the ring of fire has been somewhat more active, if the pacific volcanic activity is the source of the trigger for el-nino phenomenon then wed expect global warming to be correlated to pacific tectonic activity via el-nino over extended periods. also falsely asserts that:It was johnwho that introduced the consensus. or three years ago i was researching the earth’s magnetic field and came across strong 16 year periodicity in its secular variability. often occur in africa and northeast brazil during el niños. to the surface than usual, and the co2 release is enhanced.. does el niño create dangerous conditions for marine life, and will it have a lasting effect on marine animals? the evolution of an el niño after it starts, since that. while it is impossible to prove that el niño caused the particular. main element, then el niño will not be predictable. because of the force of the trades, sea level at indonesia is about 1/2 meter higher than at peru. much of global temperature increase is due to el niño? accurate weather and climate models are depends on how far in advance. example, in the last few decades the ring of fire has been somewhat more active, if the pacific volcanic activity is the source of the trigger for el-nino phenomenon then wed expect global warming to be correlated to pacific tectonic activity via el-nino over extended periods. fluid envelope of the earth is prone to developing various kinds of. second, el niño adds punch to the storms because the stronger. ” if el nino is causing warming, isn’t the real cause of the warming whatever is causing el nino? you forget seth is that a lot of the released el nino waters don’t just flush tot the poles like if it was a toilet. models have failed to predict the events since then, and the. first, they run the model with the actual conditions (that is, including this year's (1997) el niño-induced sst anomalies in the pacific) and produce weather forecasts, just like the regular ones. if you watch water vapor/cloud cover off the pacific every day along with tsi, eventually you’ll notice that higher evaporation ie more clouds stream off the subsolar point throughout the year, even on short time scales, when tsi spikes, where that energy and moisture then travels north in the nh, dumping on the us, creating floods and other extreme events. this is known as an el nino modoki or cp (central pacific) el nino.. second is the development (by my laboratory) of a simple, inexpensive design for buoys that can be deployed in mid-ocean and remain active. but in returning to a liquid state, it releases the heat that was used to evaporate it from the ocean surface (heat that came from the sun), and this middle atmosphere heating amplifies the rising motion. the predictions are especially useful to help farmers decide what crops to plant.

What is El Nino? - Definition & Effects |

we won't have good statistics about el niño for. the anomaly was attributed to el niño because a decrease occurred with the 2009 el niño. many of them came in during the excitment about the big el niño of 1997-98, but with another (weaker) event in december 2002, interest rose again. do you have any ideas what could be fuelling el nino that results in continuing warming? you will probably find out that some aspects of your local weather are related to the el niño/la niña cycle and some are not. from some region, colder water from below may be pulled up.. gulf coast,These correlations are quite robust and the statistical forecast is. as i explained in another article, the forecasts for the 2015 el niño failed because the mechanisms are not understood”. the coriolis effect turns these inflows to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the left in the southern, resulting in the great trade-wind belts that blow equatorward and westward over the width of the the tropical pacific. the answers here tend to be in more depth, though. average tsi, the green line in the composite plot, is just about at the level for overall ocean warming, and below that the ocean cools. el niño, on the other hand, involves the transport of water masses over thousands of kilometers, but over a period of months. figure 5 shows the cell for the northern hemisphere, a similar cell occurs in the southern hemisphere. niño develops in models without an indian ocean again indicates. for example, environment canada and other agencies made long-term forecasts based on el niño and global warming, but they were wrong almost every time. nino and la nina are short lasting events which may temporarily intervene in the heat transport process, but are unlikely to contiguously power it (el nino) as it is in the case of 1930s or ‘modern warming’ or interrupt it (la nina) as in case of number of global cooling periods such as lia, 1900s and 1960-70’s cooling. is merely a storage radiator for the atmosphere and what it disgorges to it in the short term it will necessarily absorb to stabilise. how much of the increase was due to el niño?. but many people (including myself) grow them in gardens and. when a mjo is at its strongest, between the western indian and western pacific oceans, it exhibits characteristics that approximate those of a hybrid-cross between a convectively-coupled kelvin wave and an equatorial rossby wave. the statistical significance of changes in recent el niños..The net result is an increase in global temperature due to several a seemingly infinite number of causes, not just el niño. know that el niño occurs on the background of the large-scale. cannot run experiments to see what a parallel earth without an el niño this year would do. away from the pacific coast, north america actually tends to have milder winters during el niño years, and it is even thought that el niño reduces the number and intensity of hurricanes in the atlantic. where would elon musk, warren buffet and all the other green profiteers send their embarrassing wealth for offshore laundering? the shallow (30 meter deep) eastern thermocline allows the winds to pull up water from below, water that is generally much richer in nutrients than the surface layer. the models are inconclusive on this point,With some saying there might be a strengthening and others saying not. effect would a well-placed tsunami have on el niño? public became aware of el niño following the shift northward of the 1983 event, so it affected southern california. however,One goes to antarctica to experience the majesty of wild nature,And i'm sure it will be rewarding and beautiful nonetheless. order to better understand and try to predict el niño, scientists have set up a system of buoys across the pacific ocean that record daily temperatures both above and below the surface. el nino is a pacfifc ocean phenomenon and has no counterpart either in the atlantic or the indian oceans., you have difficulty answering a question, bob:1) you think warming on the scale of decades is attributable to the el nino? thoughts on “how much of global temperature increase is due to el niño? just open the character map, find the character you want, select it, and copy, then paste to your text. later, the sc24 tsi peak in feb/march 2015 happened at the onset of the 2016 el nino. el niño occur, and add to the complexity of the task. most widely used scale is known as the southern oscillation. the synchronicity of the high tsi times and el ninos should not be ignored, but explored further.. with weakened trade winds, the upwelling in the east correspondingly. el niño, water of about 28°c is found across a huge region.-95, and most prominently the present event, none of which developed.

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big assumption on your part, vukcevic, that the redistributed warm waters following an el niño are limited to the surface. in the book here:If el nino is warming the globe, the energy absorbed from the sun has to be retained for decades or even longer in the ocean’s surface layer, since the atmosphere has no required thermal capacity., you do yourself no favours at all in even mentioning the 97% silliness.. why can't i find any information about links between el niño and global warming? correctly estimate the amount of water and heat released by.“so remember, not every el niño event affects global circulation in the same way, which makes seasonal forecasting all the more important. a subject to preview related courses:Droughtas we said, the effects of el niño vary around the world. the state of the ocean-atmosphere system at that time, well before. by burning fossil fuels at the rate we do,We increase the co2 concentration in the atmosphere in a way that. the antarctic situation is the classic mode, the arctic bastardised by the distribution of land and sea that plays havoc with pressure relativities in winter.* due to (1) deletion, extension and amending of user comments, and (2) undated post-publication revisions of article contents after significant user commenting. i think this is the most likely explanation for multi decade swings in weather patterns between north and south. the ipcc does not deal with monsoonal mechanisms well as i explained in a previous article. in this lesson, we'll see how the effects of el nino can be noticed in many parts of the world, with different regions experiencing varying weather anomalies. these transfers are little understood yet occur on a much larger scale than el nino. each case analyzed i start by doing the optimal fourier transform (oft) that was developed by dr.. why do el niño and la niña only occur in the pacific?. everyone wants to be the first to develop a successful el. far as i know there are no reported effects of el niño on drake. without a rather large feedback valie to rely upom, this is a much too small number to result in the changes observed in the el nino cycle. (that is one of the main ways that el niño affects n america,Since that heat and moisture can be carried great distances on the upper winds). models would be forecasts made using several assumptions, and the. although el niño does not occur in a perfectly regular pattern, it seems to happen every 2 to 7 years. but we do see that it apparently does not take much to destabilize the strong-trade-wind/large-temperature-contrast non-el niño state discusses in the section above., we learn more about the system, and modelers are constantly. 2015 india summer monsoon was below average in rainfall, but not the winter monsoon, which showers a south eastern coastal strip including chennai. been 10 or so el niños since the 1950s, so we really have a weak. these are independent drivers, so it is rather hard to predict future temperature levels. warm, increased evaporation occurs, as well as tropical convection, and. tisdale wrote an “april fools” article about the extreme nature of the 1998 el niño. to the eastward displacement of the walker cell, as stronger winds. this reflects the fact that, far from the center of action in the tropical pacific, el niño is only one of many influences on weather. the “el niño type” conclusion is that the front bumper was causing the back bumper to move. i always wanted to go there myself and would not let el niño. is widely accepted that global temperature rose in 1998, and the rise is attributed to el niño. if, however, el niños became more frequent, then one might find the overall composition of marine life changing in that region. there were any other source of energy warming ocean currents we would bloody well know about it. as an example:“as i explained to farmers in canada, el niño does not affect canada. to strong el nino events are triggered by long-term (i. the central pacific along the equator to south america (see a plot of sst during the height of el niño (december 1997))..“the negative feedback between sst and surface fluxes can be interpreted as showing the importance of the discharge of heat during el niño events and of the recharge of heat during la niña events. the heating during el niño can be related to the power of the h-bomb as follows..if it were possible to change the temperature of the water, would it reverse an el niño?

How Much Of Global Temperature Increase Is Due To El Niño

. such a model uses a computer to solve the equations that govern fluid. the jet streams (storm tracks) that control temperate-zone weather,Much as a large rock in a stream determines the pattern of water flow,Including wavey motions that extend well downstream of the rock. the answer lies in the totality of the system, said answer may well be chaotic in nature given all of what it is and adding all of the other potential exogenous variables that impact climate. are pithier in their assessment as this headline indicates “climate models can’t predict squat: latest ipcc models still unable to simulate monsoons.“great big assumption on your part, vukcevic, that the redistributed warm waters following an el niño are limited to the surface. that lovely palindrome, “a man, a plan, a canal – panama”. my guess is that each model would be successful in. volcanic inputs are just an example of something that might be the butterfly wings that flap to trigger el-nino, or the tidal effects of the moon/sun or any number of other effects. as the el nino wave retreats water level behind it drops half a meter or so. theory and wrote a computer model to produce predictions based. consider that sea level rose 120 meters during the transition to the holocene. to be at least partly true, but it was contradicted by the el. it is a major failing of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) models because of lack of data and a grid size too large to accommodate the thousands of convective cells that form in the rising air along the heat equator. these are mjo events that travel from the eastern equatorial indian ocean, along the equator, all the way into the western pacific ocean, where they initiate westerly wind bursts (wwb’s). that we know an el niño when we see it).ño of 1993, which occurred immediately after one the previous year,And no accumulation had occurred.” so the tsi spik cannot be the course of the el nino, it is correlation not causation. name el niño now refers to the warm phase of a large oscillation.. does mother nature have a purpose for el niño? course, this argument is misleading in that el niño probably does not actually. says: “if el nino is warming the globe, the energy absorbed from the sun has to be retained for decades or even longer in the ocean’s surface layer, since the atmosphere has no required thermal capacity. these have been getting more attention lately, but in the past were ignored because the pacific el niño is so powerful and has such obvious effects. subsequently i looked at spectral response of numerous climate related data, and found it only in two: the arctic temperature and himalayan monsoon. rains in latitudes where it seldom if ever rains to any great. like 40% of all sunlight reaching earth is absorbed below 1 meter of ocean surface and most. believe that we have not measured the heat from volcanic activity well enough to quantity it’s warming affects. can't i find any information about links between el niño and global warming? el niño is part of this normal climate, along with other.. scoresby, a very intelligent young man who commands a whaling vessel from whitby observed last year that 2000 square leagues of ice with which the greenland seas between the latitudes of 74° and 80°n have been hitherto covered, has in the last two years entirely disappeared. thing one could guess, is it would require very long prolong periods of significant increase of oceanic volcanic activity and one might start with first establishing what is the baseline of “normal” volcanic activity. is a lot of confusion about what el niño will do this winter. el niño is a natural mode of variability of the. when the moisture condenses into rain, that energy is released to warm the air at the level of condensation. the el nino phenomenon started when the panamanian seaway closed and the pacic current system of today was established. anybody who is interested in this subject should definitely check out the pmel el.. does el niño cause specific storms (florida tornadoes of february)? for example,During the mid-1980s a group at columbia university developed a fairly. early 1980s) to develop the technology to place and maintain a large. (see the note on units and symbols below) (the area was estimated by dividing the array into regions each assumed to be represented by one buoy. el nino associated currents flowing away from the equator, same as in case of other major currents e. 7 shows the interannual variations of the indian summer monsoon plotting floods and droughts against el niño and la nina events. are the differences between statistical and dynamical forecast models of el niño? the wwb’s help initiate an el nino event by creating downwelling kelvin waves in the western pacific that propagate towards the eastern pacific, where they produce intense localized warming, as well as by generating easterly moving equatorial surface currents which transport warm water from the warm pool region into the central pacific.

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. although that may not be so satisfying scientifically,It is certainly useful societally, since we are usually well. instability of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere system (see question 9b below) that would.— for example, in the last few decades the ring of fire has been somewhat more active, if the pacific volcanic activity is the source of the trigger for el-nino phenomenon then wed expect global warming to be correlated to pacific tectonic activity via el-nino over extended periods. but like the eddy in the river, although we can predict in general that thunderstorms will occur in a particular region on a summer afternoon, most of the time we cannot predict precisely where and when they will form.“for el nino to work, energy must build up in the system for months”. however it still doesn’t explain process of continuous global warming by el ninos. at the same time the trade winds act on the ocean as well. do, and since el niños occur against the background existing. the heat accumulated in that western pacific warm pool hasn’t been sitting around for decades, it comes and goes depending on various conditions, especially el nino and la nina conditions. lts been well worth the 3 years l have had to wait for it to turn up.“whatever triggers el nino is also triggering other changes in energy balance”. the reason why some periods have many el niños (like the 1990s). as strong as the 1991-92 el niño which measured only about 1. much of the effort in computer modeling of fluid flows involves representing this friction; since it often occurs on smaller scales than the gridbox size of the models, this is done by estimating an "eddy viscosity" that parameterizes these effects, which is an important source of the uncertainty in climate modeling. example very warm water tends to produce a lot of evaporation,And also rising air above itself and consequently there are tropical. are three simple models that can be used to project forward from. this gradient is not evenly spread over that entire distance,But tends to be concentrated in relatively narrow bands. condensation of water vapor releases heat which accelerates the rising. think the reason for el-nino is the large difference in salinity near the. not forget large regional up welling which brings up cooler water and takes down warmer water, turnover, solar energy. case el niño does not exist in isolation, and any changes in. example el niño devastates the population of seabirds off peru,By reducing the fish stock on which they live. debris from the living creatures rains down into the lower layer, where nutrients dissolve, making the deep water rich, so that wherever there is upwelling, there is abundant life. peru and ecuador usually receive the brunt of the force of el niño. warm equatorial waters (el niño), the warm blob in the gom last year and the cooler waters in the nw pacific would cause the winter highs and lows to setup depending on the water temperature underneath it. since some of the early data are noisy i compute separately a correlation coefficient for data after the date indicated in the table. would be a good indication that this el niño has set up the jet stream. for example, right now (february 1998) most of the models are suggesting that. equations is as large as that in any field of study.“… phenomenon that most word processors force you to misspell, el nino, …. since tsi has recently tanked for the past few weeks, the cloud cover has dropped off, the skies have cleared, allowing for higher insolation under less windy and more stagnant skies, and the us uv index has risen lately, even though tsi has dropped recently. the actual process involves the formation of a typhoon/cyclone pair straddling the equator which produces an intense wwb between the two intense low pressure cells. you obviously aren’t accounting for all of the leftover warm waters from the el nino that are redistributed out of the eastern tropical pacific in the wake of the el nino. likewise, a preponderance of el nino events can add up and warm the entire climate system for decades at a time, as happened recently from 1977 to 2005. course, computer models are not reality, but these experiments suggest.-grid models of single storms, then try to extrapolate those properties.. has there been any research to cause a small man-made el niño? obviously we must have little or no data on such as it is rarely, if ever, part of any discussion on climate or global weather patterns. many scientists are coming to the view that there may not be such a thing as la niña, or at least that it is not just the opposite of el niño. science assumed the peak in global temperature was solely due to the el niño that occurred in 1998. it’ll also work when typing into a wuwt text box, like this: el niño.. el niño is part of the natural variability of the. if el nino rolls around and changes the weather patterns in canada, then that is not appearing to do so, it *is* doing so.

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there are other things besides enso in the ocean and they are capable of influencing the enso frequency which makes el nino prediction difficult. the actual horizontal motion of each water particle in a tsunami is very small, probably less than 30 meters in the open ocean (it can become much greater when the wave runs up on the continental shelf, of course, but that does not affect the open-ocean temperatures). understand el niño, it is necessary to understand the normal trade-wind system in the tropical pacific. there is a layer in the atmosphere between about 8km and 15km in elevation in the high and mid latitudes where these extreme differences in air density are responsible for very strong winds called jet streams. when the water level has reached a peak reverse flow by gravity starts, follows the equatorial counter-current and runs ashore in south america.@ vulc and taxed, april 3, 1: 20 pm, i don’t know if there has been a “blocking ” high over western canada as well, but the last two weeks there has been a very constant benign pattern in place, clear/ calm and a very stable temp pattern, 0 – 3 c at night, and 17 – 18 c in the day, (great for stargazing and early gardening). type of forecast is based on a dynamical model of the ocean-atmosphere. highly recommend taking all these images, pasting them into excel, and scaling them to match in time, and enjoying a most interesting epiphany. there a scale for the intensity of el niño? measure of el niño, and these locations are not ideally sited. in my view the central comment you make comes very early in your piece and it is this: ‘whatever was causing el niño to change was also causing the circumpolar vortex to change. (known as la niña) that may be similarly strong, as well as some. it is probable that this added heat raised the global average that was not a result of el nino..Gulf coast, the correlation of cool, rainy winters with el niño is. spread these cells towards cooler, higher latitudes than what is the norm, then cooling is accelerated, showing as heat in surface temperature readings (dr ball’s point, i think). the release of energy is less than gain, then the year ends with more energy / if the release is greater than the gain then the oceans end up with less energy than the last year – that’s it – done.. is el niño a theory or a proven fact? sea level in the west having been built up by several years. el nino conditions occur when these trade winds falter, and allow that warm pool to slosh back towards the eastern pacific, where they warm the normally cool upwelling along the west coast of south america, ruining the anchovy fisheries as one consequence. or cold of winter and would be severely disrupted if these. terms of anomalies, this is near-normal in the central pacific, but gets progressively more anomalous along the equator to. it’s a fabricated, model-based chart that has no connection with reality. warm air rises, joins the westerlies, and we notice that an el nino has started.-nino is a feature which creates conditions for the former (energy gain), la nina represents the later, whether the climate on the whole over time gains or loses energy depends on the relative frequencies of la-nina and el-nino and it all depends on the dissipative wind flows and currents around the planet. the millenia (we know that el niños have been occurring as. that much of the el niño cycle could be understood in terms of. ball put it: the net result is an increase in global temperature due to several causes, not just el niño. el niño's effects are not only felt through rain. stormsalong the pacific coast of the americas, el niño can cause severe storms and flooding. triggers el nino is also triggering other changes in energy balance and the mechanisms of change. reason you won't find much information connecting el niño and. el niño/la niña cycle because of the peculiar dynamics of. a result the co2 release to the atmosphere is reduced during. in fact, whatever was causing el niño to change was also causing the circumpolar vortex to change. the argo network shows deep ocean cooling:The heat released during an el nino comes from warm water stored in the western pacific ocean (sometimes mistakenly called the eastern pacific because it’s in the eastern hemisphere, but that’s another issue) . the periodicity of el niño events (every 2-7 years) the same as la niñas? have seen nothing to indicate that el niño might pose an extra danger. net result of the moon’s involvement in the initiation of el nino events means that:El niño events in new moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the sun at the times of the solstices., ranging from storm systems lasting a few hours or days,To el niño, to longer-term fluctuations that we are just beginning to. all the peaks you see are el ninos and valleys between them are la ninas. note on units used here:K = degrees kelvin (same units as °c, but starting from absolute zero or -273. one thing can be said reliably:If it's not this el niño that produces flooding in s. for el niño, there is no doubt that it is a real, factual.

Words to link essay paragraphs, , bob tisdale – but is it ‘from’el niño ore the ~4 ys accumulated natural warming due to recovering from lia. this pulls in adjacent air, and the process accelerates an initially tiny upward pulse into a full-blown thunderstorm that gains its energy from the background conditions (the stored latent heat). tsi in sc19 was the highest in our time, and we can know that by understanding the relationship between the solar indices f10. however, during an el niño year, this cold water is replaced by warmer water that lacks those important nutrients. specifically, the timing of these events is directly related to 31/62 year perigee/syzygy lunar tidal cycle. first real description of el niño/southern oscillation in. there is no reason to think that external processes such as volcanoes are a necessary element. a theory predicts that by observing the growth of heat content,It should be possible to forecast when an el niño will occur. without a rather large feedback valie to rely upom, this is a much too small number to result in the changes observed in the el nino cycle. links it certifications:Copyright notice material on this website is copyright © 2006-2017, by anthony watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. the public was left with the impression that this was a new phenomenon entirely due to human activity as the global warming hysteria was exploited. the graph shows temperatures are higher after each el nino. all lack credible evidence, so they have decided to tell their lies instead. get rid of the nice pictures of monsoons and polar ice extent, the multivariate enso index, the multifarious ssts, the upper atmosphere happenings, and the el nino — like miocene. that's what the publicity is about, and that is appropriate,Although perhaps not so satisfying to those such as yourself who ask "why? too is a surface pressure driven phenomenon that relates to the strength of the planetary winds that introduce cold up-welling waters into the tropical circulation. the assumption that el-nino is necessarily triggered by warm water is nai’ve, almost as certainly wrong as the poor (and wrong) assumption that outgoing em radiation should equal incoming em. if that happens the blocked warm water will spread out in mid-ocean and create an el nino on the spot., between atmosphere and ocean, not necessarily between earth and outer space (though more hot surface ocean water causing warmer atmosphere may when the heat reaches higher levels in the atmosphere lead to increased heat being shed off into space). they do not prove that the el nino was the cause of the temperature rise.. how do models used to predict el niño work? of clouds are not well simulated by an average cloud. do not have a complete picture of how the el niño cycle operates,These models (and a developing theoretical understanding) suggest that. travellers in drake passage, who presumably are going on well-maintained.[1] the maps were included separately in a pocket inside the back cover. instance, a fairly weak el niño started earlier this year (2002),And that enables forecasters to predict that the coming winter. since el niño is a worldwide weather phenomenon, climate researchers are still working to try to understand its full effect. very short records relative to the timescale of the events. so it can have long term effects on climate, not merely short term.“how much of the increase was due to el niño? unusual eastward winds and currents associated with el niño. it is not clear why this should be the case, but it shows that changing climates can be expected to change the way el niño behaves. a general forecast for a season, averaged over a large region,Our models have useful skill for as much as a few months, particularly if. can possibly convince me of the correlation but without a causation to go with it, you convince me. to make these things approximately right, but the wide spacing between. parthasarathy and his group published the precipitation data at sub-divisional level for 12 months, seasons and annual and finally for india., the el ninos are just ‘hiccups’ on the 60 year cycle. is el niño and how does it relate to the usual situation in the tropical pacific? c) needs to occur in the waters of the eastern pacific ocean near the equator for it to be considered an el niño year. this heat is not due to el nino but does add to the global average.. i have a strange feeling that the sea beavers are playing. on what “permanent drought…keith j on what “permanent drought…jaakkokateenkorva on new infrared-emitting device c…michael darby on questions on the rate of globa…kribaez on are claimed global record-temp…bryan on new infrared-emitting device c…ken on over the top: the sad case of…bruce cobb on what “permanent drought…commiebob on new infrared-emitting device c…steve ta on new infrared-emitting device c…. energy of the ocean is not reset to some reference datum every january the 1st, each years oceanic energy depends of the level at the end of the last year, plus or minus the energy surplus/deficit in the current year. Write a follow up email after application - don't you see much publicity about the causes of el niño? likely you think of a la nina as “the opposite” but it’s not: those cold waters don’t go around they don’t return in rossby waves and spread out. if it were possible to change the temperature of the water, would it reverse an el niño? have been two major developments: first is the much better satellite. i enjoy helping them (and have 2 school-age kids myself, so i'm familiar with the situation), but a fair number of them are writing the evening before their project is due. a relatively brief opposing wind occurs over the west pacific warm pool. do not have all the answers as to how this actually happens but the best answer that i can come up with is that slow forcings applied to the earth by the lunar tides influences the formation and subsequent propagation of madden-julian oscillations (mjo) along the equatorial indian ocean and pacific oceans. the southern extent of the polar vortex lobe into the us is at the south tennessee border, delivering up to a 24 hr thirty degree temperature drop near there right now., it should be remembered that el niño is part of the normal. do diagrams of el niño show a pointy wedge of warm water pointed west from south america? el niños start, but none of them has given us real skill in. shows climate is self regulating – no exaggeated need for climate prediction. essentially that's what weather forecast models do,Just more sophisticatedly (see question 13). can see relationship between monsoon and the earth’s magnetic field, but not monsoon and the arctic temperature, perhaps there is a clue somewhere in the dr. to recognize the start of an event, and then the models. example, here's a sea surface temperature plot showing the pointy wedge (december 1997) (bottom panel). heat absorbed in the equatorial regions will be soon radiated back into space unless it is moved elsewhere and after while again radiated into space. sst is likely to change over the next few weeks and months. i think the conditions could have been very similar in 1964 as yesterday: high insolation with relatively high uv accompanied by low evaporation and mostly clear skies, allowing heat to build rapidly in one day. are many other sites for classroom lessons on el niño on the web, including:"the long paddock", queensland (australia). actually did occur, but they can fail because el niño is not an exact,Repeating phenomenon., making it hard to determine which are strong el niño years. can i understand the conflicting el niño forecasts i find on the web for this coming winter (1997-98) in california? that el niño is not the only game in town. in the above the average 30-year period more wet years and less dry years and vice versa with the next 30 year below the average period were observed. (part of a later answer expanding on the question of volcanoes and el niño. of the physical processes becomes better, we will rely more. tisdale wrote: simon, it’s definitely not “little or nothing”. is a major influence, such as el niño, that has reasonably-well. the overall correlation coefficient is not as good as the others but is satisfactory after the date given in the table. the increased melting, especially in the russian sector due to greater heat transport by wind and water from the meridional wave pattern is apparent. will modify the way the el niño cycle behaves. any lesson page:Click "add to" located below the video player and follow the prompts to name your course and save your lesson.. is el niño caused by pollution or global warming? g2-geomagnetic storm from the past weekend kicked out the polar vortex lobe further south into the us since the weekend, as indicated in the north polar total ozone maps:There are other product images that can help depict this, ie, t/p maps at various polar heights/latitudes. there isn’t an honest skeptic among them; not cook, nor ‘seaice1′, nor anyone else. i think you can see that computer models of the climate system can. there were any other source of energy warming ocean currents we would bloody well know about it, not least via vast convective overturning over any sea-bed hot-spots. i agree that el niño is winding down (the signs are obvious in the observations),But i don't think anyone knows what will happen next winter.. why do diagrams of el niño show a pointy wedge of warm water pointed west from south america? the warm pool is displaced east during el niño, the the enhanced. once an el niño has started,We have reasonably good skill in predicting the subsequent. indian southwest monsoon precipitation versus el nino & la nina — dr..

is the annual increase in atmospheric co2 concentrations smaller during el niño years than la niña years? name el niño (referring to the christ child) was originally given by. warm air rises, joins the westerlies, and we notice that an el nino has started. models, however, have significant problems in accurately representing its seasonal cycle because of the difficulty in capturing the asymmetric nature of the monsoonal winds over the basin, resulting in too weak a semi-annual harmonic in the local ekman pumping over the ridge region compared to observations (yokoi et al. for example, cotton grows better in drier conditions, but in a wet el niño year, it may benefit the farmer to plant rice since it grows better in wet conditions. simple project is to determine how significant an effect el niño has on your local region. element affecting north america is that when the eastern pacific. monsoon rains were hit by el niño weather pattern in 2009, when the four-month long monsoon season turned the driest in nearly four decades.. why is the annual increase in atmospheric co2 concentrations smaller during el niño years than la niña years? due – as you correctly say yourself – to the vast heat capacity of the oceans. the current of "el niño" (the child jesus) because. ironically even the skeptic side with their fanous “escalator graph” prove the point: each step falls on an important el nino year. project is to construct some forecast models of el niño's. to have stable average ocean surface temperature one needs tens of meters of warmer surface waters- which what’s involved with el nino. an el niño/la niña cycle and the atlantic not. case in point wrt my earlier post, see below how tsi came up off the floor in 2009/10, at the onset of an el nino., you believe or pretend that the first law of thermodynamics (conservation of energy) isn’t a thing, bob:2) warming on the scale of multiple decades requires more energy in than energy out of the earth’s system. that what we learn about the climate system from studying el niño. figure 9 shows the percentage concentration of ice for april 2, 2016, and figure 10 shows the ice cover for april 1, 2016, with a delineation of the anomaly from the average. then get an index of el niño like the southern oscillation index (see question 17 for a description and graphic, and download the values at noaa's climate prediction center. we can describe the collapse pretty well, we don't seem to know what makes the system ready to collapse, or what exactly causes the opposing winds in the first place. or slowly, what size population of an organism is likely to. that is, successive cycles adding energy, rather than ” the discharge of heat during el niño events and of the recharge of heat during la niña events”? following quote is given in the introduction to an excellent (scholarly) book by george philander of princeton university ("el niño, la niña. final thing to remember is that el niño is not the entire story. perhaps there would have been strong tornadoes on this day in florida without el niño, but it appears not. often, large pools of this water move around the pacific and indian oceans underwater for years, even making their way up to the arctic, and finally resurface, warming the atmosphere years after the el nino is over. if we could make the kind of deliberate changes of ocean temperature suggested above, it is not at all clear that this would be desirable. sea level: the critical factor in 2016 great barrier reef bleaching! that these two stations were anticorrelated, so that when tahiti. and mixing deeper ocean waters [also part of el nino] is very long term warming [centuries] or a significant portion which is involved with sea level rise.. this article is about el nino, so i would prefer to stick to the topic. hard fact is that we do not know very well what will happen in california. underwater volcanoes release a lot more heat than above water ones, because up here they’re not associated with a warming. statistical forecasts (noting that el niño "usually" brings rain to california). sensitive dependence on initial conditions only means you cannot precisely predict/repeat a future system state. answer this question we need to consider how much heat change is involved in climate oscillations such as el niño.. what have been the major new developments for in situ monitoring of ssts? el niño is not all bad in the americas, though. 1878 there was a monster el nino during solar minimum conditions, when the v2 ssns only averaged 14 per month from may of 1875 to dec of 1879, exceeding 30 in a month only three times during that span. any case, even if we had a way to channel these effects into direct heating of ocean water, it is clear from the magnitudes involved that people are nowhere near the ability to modify the climate on this scale. but the key point regarding geothermal heating is that the trigger for el niños is probably winds, not heat. tco on the margin of a high pressure cell is 25% greater than at its core.

note that this collapse extracts its energy from the background state of the pacific (the fact that sea level is higher in the west), which is a signature of instability (see question 9b below). four images contain the basic elements needed to understand the sun’s power to drive weather, climate, and extreme events… and there’s more…. rotation (more precisely the angular momentum) of the entire mass of the earth/ocean/atmosphere system. spread large deep cells of warm water over a large surface area and they will cool more rapidly. career path that can help you find the school that's right for you. widely realized that this was not just a local peruvian occurrence,But was associated with changes over the entire tropical pacific and beyond., after brought out the 60-year cycle, my self and krishna kumar has an opportunity to be on the same floor to talk in mumbai on an invitation. will el niño affect the tides and ferocity of the water in drake passage? when a mjo moves from the western indian ocean into the western pacific ocean, it generally accelerates, becomes less strongly coupled to convection, and transitions into a convectively de-coupled (i. that it may have been only because of these anomalous el niño. am not claiming that energy build-up isn’t required for an el nino – i am saying ssts take off quickly when f10. el niño, we can recognize it, and then know (largely from statistics. a key point is that although we can predict that eddies will form behind certain rocks, we cannot know precisely where and when, or which ones will get large and which ones will remain small. think of the equator as warm, but upwelling of deeper (hence colder). models of the climate system are a sophisticated way of. which are weak (or even whether or not there is really an el niño. nino’s and la nina’s actually cause a little global cooling, because according to the boltzmann equation “radiation increases to the forth power with temperature” so ups and downs in temperature mean a little more radiation is emitted to space, than if the globe stayed at a constant average temperature. that is el niño (see schematic diagram at right). i don’t know if you guys were aware of this pattern and is it related to the high pressure zones you two are talking about? a column of mercury is just a measure of length,Which is accurate and easily convertible among inches or centimeters,Whereas thermometers are inherently less accurate since they rely on a. for example soi values for the 1982-83 el niño. this phenomenon manifests most strongly in the pacific because of the intensity of the large, almost stationary high pressure cell that sets up on the western side of south america strongly reflects mass transfer dynamics in the atmosphere., it is my belief that as computers become faster and as our. el niño is, but we do observe that these events drain the west. some of the answers go over the same ground, and they're not in any particular order. as far as i can tell, it’s butterflies all the way down. to a relatively crude grid mesh representation of the world. short answer to the question “how much of global temperature increase is due to el niño? this is a principal mechanism for heat from the sun to warm the atmosphere (the atmosphere by itself is relatively transparent to solar radiation). non-el niño periods the eastern equatorial pacific is cool,And the equator-pole gradient is weaker there than in the west.; as the warm pool moves east the upwelled water is also not as. yes, it’s not a forcing but it is an internal variable that is very capable of producing long term warming if the cause (trigger) of la-nina / el-nino is not the temperature of the water. than 28c, usually found from indonesia to the dateline) eastward. el niño originate solely in the tropics or do the midlatitudes play an important role? el niño phase typically lasts for 8-10 months or so. bias towards this point of view, in that this field offers the. that assumes the power of those bombs could be directed entirely to heating.. is the periodicity of el niño events (every 2-7 years) the same as la niñas? the issue is complicated by kessler’s answer to the question, “is the periodicity of el niño events (every 2-7 years) the same as la niñas? the present cycle ended in 2000 and started the below the average part of 66-year cycle in 2001 — since then on majority of the years dry conditions were seen [including the last two seasons — water availability in dams also reflected this]. it therefore seems very likely that large amounts of heat can accumulate in one hemisphere before reaching a tipping point that causes it to “dump” heat to the other hemisphere. but a group at noaa's climate diagnostic center in boulder, co, is trying something similar using numerical forecast models. underwater volcanoes release a lot more heat than above water ones, because up here they’re not associated with a warming.  Air pollution cars essay- onset of el nino event are marked by the weakening of the easterly trade winds associated with the walker circulation. this is very problematic throughout melanesia, because many of the islands receive their water supply almost exclusively from rain fall. regions of the equatorial pacific are used to define "el niño periods". swell seen on the surface, but very largescale motions that. el niño might also change, we are nowhere near the ability. there can be several el niños in a row, as we had in the early 1990s. there been any research to cause a small manmade el niño or the replication of some of its effects to control weather systems? of el niño and la niña on north america are shown in a schematic diagram with text explanation from noaa's climate prediction center. study el niño partly for its own effects, but also partly. you have any ideas what could be fuelling el nino that results in continuing warming? el niño create dangerous conditions for marine life, and will it have a lasting effect on marine animals? trade winds are the equivalent of blowing across a tube and the ocean answers with its own fundamental frequency – one el nino peak every four-five years or so. even if it were possible to make el niño. illustrate this a little better and make it more clear for everyone, i’ve made some adjustments to the lower troposphere temperatures for the impact of the volcanoes (which distort the picture somewhat since there were two major ones in the time covered by uah rss and one happened right when a super el nino was starting up).. is there a scale for the intensity of el niño? for example, the 44-year period 1921-64 witnessed just three drought years; during such epochs, the monsoon was found to be less correlated with the enso.(of course, el niño does affect sea level, by perhaps 20-30 cm, as seen in satellite altimetry data, but these changes happen over a period of months and are.ño theme page, which gives access to realtime data and many links and discussions about el niño, including a more complete faq page. we could be headed for 2009 levels in the next minimum, or higher, depending on the power of the sun. they also applied the other misleading concept of teleconnections, which evolved around the chaos theory notion that a butterfly flaps its wings in japan, and california gets a severe storm several days later. of the weather related physics here is beyond my detailed understanding, but you used the chaos theory and i had my own corollary. by 2-7 years, in an irregular and not-well-understood pattern (see a time series of occurrences of el niño since 1950, and since 1882). trade winds weaken,Particularly west of the dateline, and the piled-up water in the west.– do you therefore claim that the el nino is a recent phenomenon? are going on at the same time, so whatever the effects of el niño,We see them all jumbled up with many other signals. but el niño is a vital element all the same., but if we had no observations to tell us the answer in. conversely in a chaotic system a huge input perturbation can result in a small to none output perturbation. the mei graphic, all the major el ninos had a similar spread in delta t from the bottom of the previous “blue” spike to top of the “red” spike. as i explained in another article, the forecasts for the 2015 el niño failed because the mechanisms are not understood. reason for this state of affairs is that el niños only come., there is no question that el niño has serious effects on. the results for forecasts of florida precipitation during the tornadoes of feb 23 suggest that el niño did indeed add punch to these storms. the “pause” being then nothing else than some excursion around the maximum of the sinusoïd. entirely natural, no funny business, just natural selection at work. series of el niño events during the 1990s, and it appears that we must. sst products are usually a blend of satellite avhrr ground-truthed by means of. extremely spotty before that), then your statistics are probably going. short, most aogcms do not simulate the spatial or intra-seasonal variation of monsoon precipitation accurately., el niño is an instability, which means it is a fluctuation that gains energy from the background state. this east-west difference in the current structure ("western intensification") was explained by the preeminent oceanographer henry stommel in 1948. if el nino is causing warming, isn’t the real cause of the warming whatever is causing el nino? note that el ninos and la ninas are always created in pairs and there is an equal number of them.


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